"the updating 2024 election analysis, provided by the Osa telegraph" --Aphrodite Avidon, Eighth Grade
November 5th, 4:06 PM PST
Polls have closed in Vermont, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. We can project Vermont for Kamala Harris.
Polls have closed in Vermont, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. We can project Vermont for Kamala Harris.
November 5th, 4:00 PM PST
We can now project that the states of Kentucky and Indiana for Donald Trump
We can now project that the states of Kentucky and Indiana for Donald Trump
November 5th, 3:02 PM PST
Results are in! Just in Kentucky and Indiana. No state calls yet. Follow live updates for more.
Results are in! Just in Kentucky and Indiana. No state calls yet. Follow live updates for more.
November 5th, 2:46 PM PST
The big issue. The economy. Americans are divided about whether it's good or bad. Job growth saw a week point in the October jobs report, however it's largely related to the Boeing strike, as well as the hurricanes Helene and Milton. However the main thing driving millions of American's votes is inflation. Inflation had a decades high peak under the Biden administration and Democrat's are worried. Trump and Harris have essentially the opposite position on the issue, with Trump in favor of Tariffs on Chinese goods, and Harris taking a more aggressive approach, proposing a ban on corporate price gouging.
The big issue. The economy. Americans are divided about whether it's good or bad. Job growth saw a week point in the October jobs report, however it's largely related to the Boeing strike, as well as the hurricanes Helene and Milton. However the main thing driving millions of American's votes is inflation. Inflation had a decades high peak under the Biden administration and Democrat's are worried. Trump and Harris have essentially the opposite position on the issue, with Trump in favor of Tariffs on Chinese goods, and Harris taking a more aggressive approach, proposing a ban on corporate price gouging.
November 5th, 2:27 PM PST
Democrats are losing support among people of color. In previous elections, Black and Latino voters have been a Democratic stronghold that allowed Republicans to win over white voters, while they lose this election. A demographic group off the radar until about a week ago... Puerto Ricans. Right wing comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a comment "I heard there's an island of garbage in the ocean, I think it's called Puerto Rico" while speaking at a Trump event. The comment has created unrest around Hispanic voters and prompted many Harris endorsements from celebrities such as Jennifer Lopez.
Democrats are losing support among people of color. In previous elections, Black and Latino voters have been a Democratic stronghold that allowed Republicans to win over white voters, while they lose this election. A demographic group off the radar until about a week ago... Puerto Ricans. Right wing comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a comment "I heard there's an island of garbage in the ocean, I think it's called Puerto Rico" while speaking at a Trump event. The comment has created unrest around Hispanic voters and prompted many Harris endorsements from celebrities such as Jennifer Lopez.
November 5th, 2:18 PM PST
What do the pundits say? Well, Nate Silver's presidential forecast has Kamala Harris leading by less that 1% in his forecast. Abour 2 weeks ago Silver wrote an editorial in The New York Times saying that "his gut" says that Trump will win, but otherwise he's unsure, however Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections and uses a system to predict the president called the 13 keys. He strongly believes that Harris will win.
What do the pundits say? Well, Nate Silver's presidential forecast has Kamala Harris leading by less that 1% in his forecast. Abour 2 weeks ago Silver wrote an editorial in The New York Times saying that "his gut" says that Trump will win, but otherwise he's unsure, however Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections and uses a system to predict the president called the 13 keys. He strongly believes that Harris will win.
| November 5th, 2:00 PM PST Polls close in 2 very unimportant states in an hour. Expected to go to Trump in a Landslide. Indiana and Kentucky will likely be called for Trump, even before votes are reporting. A Democrat hasn't won Indiana in 16 years, and Kentucky in 28 years, will this be the year... No. |  |
November 5th, 1:46 PM PST
Money, Money, Money. The major candidates this year raised a total of $1,631,732,585, and other outside groups have raised even more. All that money, just spent on attack ads nobody would voluntarily watch. Is it buying someone's vote? Some might say yes, but all that billion was from donations less than $3,300. Some Americans really care about this race.
Money, Money, Money. The major candidates this year raised a total of $1,631,732,585, and other outside groups have raised even more. All that money, just spent on attack ads nobody would voluntarily watch. Is it buying someone's vote? Some might say yes, but all that billion was from donations less than $3,300. Some Americans really care about this race.
November 5th, 1:33 PM PST
But what about Gaza? Social unrest about the war simply won't fade between now and when the results come in, which is effecting many people's vote. In Dearborn, a Michigan city that normally votes heavily Democratic, fueled by it's large Muslim population, the war is effecting many people's lives, families, and votes. It's impossible to know how Muslims will vote just yet, and polls have been very contradicting of each other. It's expected that many will vote for Green party candidate Jill Stein, and her poll numbers with Muslims have ranged from 6% to 40%. Some say Stein will be a "Spoiler" for Harris, and she could tip the race towards Trump.
But what about Gaza? Social unrest about the war simply won't fade between now and when the results come in, which is effecting many people's vote. In Dearborn, a Michigan city that normally votes heavily Democratic, fueled by it's large Muslim population, the war is effecting many people's lives, families, and votes. It's impossible to know how Muslims will vote just yet, and polls have been very contradicting of each other. It's expected that many will vote for Green party candidate Jill Stein, and her poll numbers with Muslims have ranged from 6% to 40%. Some say Stein will be a "Spoiler" for Harris, and she could tip the race towards Trump.
November 5th, 1:23 PM PST
Are the elections rigged? The question appears in every presidential election and the answer is always, there's no evidence to suggest there is. Today there were threats at a couple polling places, with an "non-credible bomb threat" in Georgia, and a man who punched an election worker. But, they've overcome any issues every time, and despite the baseless claims of fraud, the elections are safe.
Are the elections rigged? The question appears in every presidential election and the answer is always, there's no evidence to suggest there is. Today there were threats at a couple polling places, with an "non-credible bomb threat" in Georgia, and a man who punched an election worker. But, they've overcome any issues every time, and despite the baseless claims of fraud, the elections are safe.
November 5th, 1:06 PM PST
While today is election day, it's not that way for over 80 million Americans who've already cast their ballots early. Here's the results as they come in. The lighter reds and blues represent the states that've not been called yet, and the leading candidates, while the darker ones represent the ones already called. Purple means a tie, and gray means no results.
While today is election day, it's not that way for over 80 million Americans who've already cast their ballots early. Here's the results as they come in. The lighter reds and blues represent the states that've not been called yet, and the leading candidates, while the darker ones represent the ones already called. Purple means a tie, and gray means no results.
| November 5th, 12:57 PM PST My election forecast, consisting of over 100,000 total simulations of the election, currently gives Harris a 60% chance of an Electoral victory, and a 83% Chance of a popular vote victory. There's a very real chance either candidate could win. The forecast has both campaigns flipping states. Prepare for forecast updates until the results come in. |  |
November 5th, 12:45 PM PST
Trump and Vance have cast their ballots. Both candidates stated that they, unsurprisingly, voted for themselves. Vance is at home in Ohio and Trump is at his Mar-A-Lago property.
The final push for voters has ended.
Trump and Vance have cast their ballots. Both candidates stated that they, unsurprisingly, voted for themselves. Vance is at home in Ohio and Trump is at his Mar-A-Lago property.
The final push for voters has ended.
November 5th, 10:31 AM PST
The Senate races seem horrible for the Democrats. With Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia retiring, Democrats would have to make an upset in a deep red state to win.
The house of representatives on the other hand seems to look good for Democrats, polling showing them eking out a win to flip the chamber
The Senate races seem horrible for the Democrats. With Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia retiring, Democrats would have to make an upset in a deep red state to win.
The house of representatives on the other hand seems to look good for Democrats, polling showing them eking out a win to flip the chamber
November 5th, 9:52 AM PST
Women, especially Caucasian seem to be turning up better than previously expected. Exit polls seem to suggest the key demographic group, fueled by unrest since the overturning of Roe, is turning out for Harris.
Women, especially Caucasian seem to be turning up better than previously expected. Exit polls seem to suggest the key demographic group, fueled by unrest since the overturning of Roe, is turning out for Harris.
November 5th, 8:02 AM PST
Polls have opened in more states in the eastern US, and Governor Tim Walz will be making a final campaign stop in eastern Pennsylvania before heading to Washington D.C. to watch the election results with the vice president. Harris is set to appear on an Atlanta radio show.
Polls have opened in more states in the eastern US, and Governor Tim Walz will be making a final campaign stop in eastern Pennsylvania before heading to Washington D.C. to watch the election results with the vice president. Harris is set to appear on an Atlanta radio show.
November 5th, 6:26 AM PST
Both campaigns are in the "Rust Belt" swing states. Trump is in Michigan actively hosting a rally in Grand Rapids. Both campaigns are hoping to encourage the last of the undecided voters before the final polls close.
Both campaigns are in the "Rust Belt" swing states. Trump is in Michigan actively hosting a rally in Grand Rapids. Both campaigns are hoping to encourage the last of the undecided voters before the final polls close.
November 5th, 5:52 AM PST
Polls have opened in just a few states on the East Coast. Around 80 million Americans have already voted, and polls are deadlocked. Final forecasts & Polls seem to be narrowly favoring the Harris campaign, such as yesterday's Marist College Poll, which came back Harris +4 nationally.
The town of Dixville Notch, NH votes the earliest. They released their precinct results at 12:00 EST, and the results came back tied, Harris with 3, and Trump with 3.
Polls have opened in just a few states on the East Coast. Around 80 million Americans have already voted, and polls are deadlocked. Final forecasts & Polls seem to be narrowly favoring the Harris campaign, such as yesterday's Marist College Poll, which came back Harris +4 nationally.
The town of Dixville Notch, NH votes the earliest. They released their precinct results at 12:00 EST, and the results came back tied, Harris with 3, and Trump with 3.
