"The background and issues of what could likely be the most consequential election in american history" Aphrodite Avidon --Eighth Grade
The November 5th Election is said to be the most consequential in US history, with the two major parties' policies as far apart as ever. About half of the Republican candidates running for office, including presidential nominee Donald Trump, said they don’t accept the 2020 election results, or would not accept the 2024 results if a win was not what they favored. The race is leading up to be the closest since 2004, and any polling error could tip the race.
The Issues
Donald Trump and JD Vance's campaign’s priorities are to “deport immigrants and end migrant crime, deport anti-Israel radicals, and cut taxes,” according to Trump’s site. Trump also has plans to create a 15% tariff on imported goods from China, which economists say would have a bad effect, and would raise prices 15% rather than creating more American jobs. “Trump’s tariff plan is much worse than [Harris’s] opportunity economy,” said Telegraph’s Economic Correspondent and OSA student Elias Yuasa. On abortion, Trump has said “Everyone wanted abortion back to the states, and we did that,” referring to the three Supreme Court appointees who voted to overturn Roe vs. Wade in 2022. Trump has criticized Harris, saying at the September 10th debate, “She has no plan. Her plan is like 4 sentences. It’s like run, spot run.”
Kamala Harris’ campaign prioritizes an “opportunity economy” and has written an 87-page economic plan that proposes raising taxes on the top 1% and lowering taxes for working families. She also details an increase in the small-business tax deduction from $5,000 to 50,000. She has set a goal to have 25,000,000 new business applications in her first term, over 10 million more than Trump’s first term. She plans to continue “Bidenomics,” and reduce inflation by creating acts similar to the Inflation Reduction Act, which would “force big oil to be held accountable.” Harris has also stated that Trump is aligned with Project 2025, the proposal that the Heritage Foundation has written to outline Trump’s second term. Trump and his campaign have repeatedly said they have nothing to do with Project 2025, however much of the book was worked on by former Trump staffers, and the forward was written by running mate JD Vance.
The Polls
Most forecasts have Kamala Harris narrowly leading Trump, giving Harris a 45-55% chance of an electoral victory. By comparison, Joe Biden had an 89% chance of victory in 2020, and Hillary Clinton had a 71% Chance of winning in 2016. Biden won, and Clinton lost, with the odds in both their favor.
Polling has overestimated Democrats in the past two elections, by around 4%, enough to change the course of the election. However, abortion referendums that heavily favor Democrats are scattered around the country, including in swing states. Arizona’s Prop 139 aims to keep abortion legal in the state, and the measure is seeing major support. Polls say one in three Republicans support keeping abortion legal. Forecasters say it could easily help Harris win the state.
Polls have Harris leading by an average of 2%, however, more trusted pollsters like Ipsos and NYTimes/Siena College polls see the race as a larger Harris lead.
The Battlegrounds
In Arizona, Trump has the largest lead of any battleground, leading by about 2% in the latest polls. The 11 electoral votes went to Biden by just 0.24% in 2020, and a small shift in Latino voters would likely flip the state. However, an abortion measure is on the ballot. Measures traditionally help Democrats win, a measure recently on the Kansas ballot to restore abortion passed by 19 points in a deeply red state and likely helped re-elect a Democratic governor that same year.
In Nevada, Harris leads by around 1.5%, a number that continues to grow. By comparison, when Biden was in the race, Trump led by around 6-8%, showing a larger shift than any of the seven “swing states.” The state has a senate race, with Sen. Jackie Rosen is likely to win reelection by 7-10 points, against her Republican challenger, Sam Brown.
In Wisconsin, Harris has her largest battleground lead, by 2.2%, showing strength in rural counties of the rust-belt state. The state also has a senate race that leans more Democratic than the presidential race, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin winning the state by 10% in 2018. She is the only candidate to have a double-digit win since Obama in 2008.
In Michigan, Harris has another strong lead. Shifting demographics are leading the state to a likely Harris/Walz victory. The state’s 16 electoral votes have voted Democratic in many past elections, being one of the “Blue Wall” states. It re-elected Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 by 11%, showing a true shift towards the Democrats.
In Georgia, Trump leads, aiming to flip the state that went blue for the first time in 2020. Polls show that Trump is gaining up to 10% of the black voters that Biden won in 2020, and a just 1% shift in the black population would lead to Trump winning by 0.1%.
In North Carolina, Trump has his narrowest lead, less than a point. However, the state has a very competitive gubernatorial race, with one candidate hoping to keep the state blue, and the Republican, surrounded in scandal, hopes to flip the state. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate, was alleged to have commented “I’m a black NAZI!” on pornography site Nude Africa. Robinson has also made homophobic, transphobic, and sexist remarks in public, such as “Homosexuality will lead to America’s collapse,” and “I wouldn’t be surprised if 9/11 was faked.”
Down-ballot races don’t usually lead to a change in the presidential race but Josh Stein, the Democratic Attorney General leading in the race, leads in forecasts by 15%. A margain that could easily shift the presidential race.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is narrowly leading Trump. Pennsylvania is one of the few states where it’s likely Biden would’ve outperformed Harris’s numbers, largely because of his birthplace in the northern part of the state. He was called “Scranton Joe,” and “Pennsylvania’s third senator.” While the race is a tossup, Harris is still likely to carry the state, as she sees much of her support in the Rust Belt.
The Issues
Donald Trump and JD Vance's campaign’s priorities are to “deport immigrants and end migrant crime, deport anti-Israel radicals, and cut taxes,” according to Trump’s site. Trump also has plans to create a 15% tariff on imported goods from China, which economists say would have a bad effect, and would raise prices 15% rather than creating more American jobs. “Trump’s tariff plan is much worse than [Harris’s] opportunity economy,” said Telegraph’s Economic Correspondent and OSA student Elias Yuasa. On abortion, Trump has said “Everyone wanted abortion back to the states, and we did that,” referring to the three Supreme Court appointees who voted to overturn Roe vs. Wade in 2022. Trump has criticized Harris, saying at the September 10th debate, “She has no plan. Her plan is like 4 sentences. It’s like run, spot run.”
Kamala Harris’ campaign prioritizes an “opportunity economy” and has written an 87-page economic plan that proposes raising taxes on the top 1% and lowering taxes for working families. She also details an increase in the small-business tax deduction from $5,000 to 50,000. She has set a goal to have 25,000,000 new business applications in her first term, over 10 million more than Trump’s first term. She plans to continue “Bidenomics,” and reduce inflation by creating acts similar to the Inflation Reduction Act, which would “force big oil to be held accountable.” Harris has also stated that Trump is aligned with Project 2025, the proposal that the Heritage Foundation has written to outline Trump’s second term. Trump and his campaign have repeatedly said they have nothing to do with Project 2025, however much of the book was worked on by former Trump staffers, and the forward was written by running mate JD Vance.
The Polls
Most forecasts have Kamala Harris narrowly leading Trump, giving Harris a 45-55% chance of an electoral victory. By comparison, Joe Biden had an 89% chance of victory in 2020, and Hillary Clinton had a 71% Chance of winning in 2016. Biden won, and Clinton lost, with the odds in both their favor.
Polling has overestimated Democrats in the past two elections, by around 4%, enough to change the course of the election. However, abortion referendums that heavily favor Democrats are scattered around the country, including in swing states. Arizona’s Prop 139 aims to keep abortion legal in the state, and the measure is seeing major support. Polls say one in three Republicans support keeping abortion legal. Forecasters say it could easily help Harris win the state.
Polls have Harris leading by an average of 2%, however, more trusted pollsters like Ipsos and NYTimes/Siena College polls see the race as a larger Harris lead.
The Battlegrounds
In Arizona, Trump has the largest lead of any battleground, leading by about 2% in the latest polls. The 11 electoral votes went to Biden by just 0.24% in 2020, and a small shift in Latino voters would likely flip the state. However, an abortion measure is on the ballot. Measures traditionally help Democrats win, a measure recently on the Kansas ballot to restore abortion passed by 19 points in a deeply red state and likely helped re-elect a Democratic governor that same year.
In Nevada, Harris leads by around 1.5%, a number that continues to grow. By comparison, when Biden was in the race, Trump led by around 6-8%, showing a larger shift than any of the seven “swing states.” The state has a senate race, with Sen. Jackie Rosen is likely to win reelection by 7-10 points, against her Republican challenger, Sam Brown.
In Wisconsin, Harris has her largest battleground lead, by 2.2%, showing strength in rural counties of the rust-belt state. The state also has a senate race that leans more Democratic than the presidential race, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin winning the state by 10% in 2018. She is the only candidate to have a double-digit win since Obama in 2008.
In Michigan, Harris has another strong lead. Shifting demographics are leading the state to a likely Harris/Walz victory. The state’s 16 electoral votes have voted Democratic in many past elections, being one of the “Blue Wall” states. It re-elected Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 by 11%, showing a true shift towards the Democrats.
In Georgia, Trump leads, aiming to flip the state that went blue for the first time in 2020. Polls show that Trump is gaining up to 10% of the black voters that Biden won in 2020, and a just 1% shift in the black population would lead to Trump winning by 0.1%.
In North Carolina, Trump has his narrowest lead, less than a point. However, the state has a very competitive gubernatorial race, with one candidate hoping to keep the state blue, and the Republican, surrounded in scandal, hopes to flip the state. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate, was alleged to have commented “I’m a black NAZI!” on pornography site Nude Africa. Robinson has also made homophobic, transphobic, and sexist remarks in public, such as “Homosexuality will lead to America’s collapse,” and “I wouldn’t be surprised if 9/11 was faked.”
Down-ballot races don’t usually lead to a change in the presidential race but Josh Stein, the Democratic Attorney General leading in the race, leads in forecasts by 15%. A margain that could easily shift the presidential race.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is narrowly leading Trump. Pennsylvania is one of the few states where it’s likely Biden would’ve outperformed Harris’s numbers, largely because of his birthplace in the northern part of the state. He was called “Scranton Joe,” and “Pennsylvania’s third senator.” While the race is a tossup, Harris is still likely to carry the state, as she sees much of her support in the Rust Belt.
